National security analysts have expressed doubt over ‘Australia’s political will’ to deliver on strategic objectives throughout the nation’s north, despite public vitriol of the rise of China’s influence and aggression.
Michael Shoebridge, a defence analyst and founder of Strategic Analysis Australia says that while the federal government’s refocus on the strategic importance of Northern Australia was a sensible assessment, the findings of the National Defence Strategy and Defence Strategic Review would require far more investment and momentum to eventuate beyond words.
“As an example, the MRH90 Taipan helicopters were retired unexpectedly and quickly last year,” he says.
“The government said ‘we will accelerate the delivery of the replacement Black Hawks’ yet that now seems to be an even slower delivery schedule than before the Taipans were retired.
“The problem is the word action gap.”
Australia has purchased a fleet of 40 Sikorsky UH-60M Blackhawk helicopters under a foreign military sale with the United States Army with eight already in Australia, and the ninth and tenth expected by the end of September. There is expected to be a total of 12 airframes by the end of 2024.
Michael points to similar decisions by the Defence department which saw cost blowouts and cancellations for Army equipment with mention of Army’s ‘misguided pursuit’ of its heavily armoured plan.
Now gutted by the Albanese government to make way for the implementation of the ‘Littoral Manoeuvre Program’, Michael says the recent restructure of Defence in the north was a stinging case of ‘heading back to the future’.
“It’s going back to more like a mobile infantry with less focus on all parts of the army being the same,” Michael says.
“Army is now going back to more of its historical structure that it had since the Vietnam War and that’s good because it’s actually more appropriate to the region that Australia is in.”
As part of a 25-year agreement made in 2011 US Marines and their equipment have rotated on six month deployments to Darwin.
And with further focus on amphibious capability, the latest force restructure has also made way for an ever growing list of joint operations with collaboration between regional allies not seen since post-war levels prompted by China’s growing influence and military capabilities.
Among the most recent was a deal struck between Australia, Japan and the US to include Japanese marines in trilateral exercises in the top end.
“This is a really huge opportunity for our three defence forces to operate in an amphibious context,” Defence Minister Richard Marles said at the time.
“We’ve agreed to explore ways in which the Japanese Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade can participate in the US Marine rotations which occur in Darwin every year.”
The increased presence of US troops in Australia could also prove fruitful for Townsville as senior Defence sources revealed to this publication there was a push in place by those in the highest levels of Army to see US littoral assets based in North Queensland.
It’s understood US personnel have visited potential sites ahead of Land Forces, an international land defence exposition showcasing equipment, technology and services for the armies of Australia and the Indo-Asia-Pacific held from the 11 – 13 September in Melbourne.
However Michael remains sceptical of any ‘real changes’ to Australia’s military capability, as reinforced in a recent speech to industry heavyweights, political leaders, defence personnel and small-to-medium enterprises at The Hunter Defence Conference.
“There’s a lack of honesty from senior officials around our security environment,” he says.
“The Chief of the Defence Force knows that he cannot predict when China might decide to use its military power.
“He knows that there are flashpoints for conflict in our region around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, and he must be talking with American ally partners who are gravely concerned about the risk of conflict this decade.”
Promoted as the largest regional Defence Conference nationally, Hunter Defence Chair Tim Owen said its design could be replicated in other regions like North Queensland which stand poised to support industry, capability and personnel.
“There’s no conference in Australia that brings that variety of capability together,” he says.
“We had everyone from US ambassador Kevin Rudd, NSW Premier Chris Minns.
“A former Defence Minister now focused on AUKUS, Defence heads talking on land, air and maritime environments, as well as SMEs and Primes.
“This design could easily be a blueprint for other regions to explain the challenges and opportunities.”
Image credits: Images supplied
